The Export Forecasting Model in Indonesia by Using ANFIS Model

Abstract

Indonesia's economy is significantly influenced by its export activities, necessitating accurate forecasting models to inform policy and business strategies. The objectives of this study are to propose the model for predicting export using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and to evaluate the performance model by using RMSE. This study explores the performance of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The research utilizes monthly export data from 2014 to 2024. In this study, the dataset will be grouped into training and testing data by 75%:25%. The performance of ANFIS models is evaluated by using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The RMSE value for ANFIS model is 13199.55 This study contributes to the literature on economic forecasting and provides valuable insights for policymakers and businesses in Indonesia aiming to enhance their strategic planning and decision-making processes. A combination fuzzy inference system and neural network is implemented to propose forecasting model of export in Indonesia.