Analysis of the Effect of Local Food-Based Nutritional Intervention on Stunting Dynamics in Central Kalimantan:

Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Approach

Abstract

Central Kalimantan is the 11th province with the highest stunting prevalence in Indonesia which 26,9% in 2022. The government is carried out various spesific and sensitive interventions to accelerate the reduction in stunting prevalence which is targeted to decrease to 15,38% in 2024. This study aims to analyse the dynamics of stunting in children under five in Central Kalimantan with the influence of local food-based nutritional interventions, snakehead fish and moringa leaves, through mathematical modelling and simulation. This ordinary differential equation system (ODE) model consisting of four variables: the proportion of children under-five at risk of stunting 𝑅(𝑡), the proportion of stunted children under five 𝑆(𝑡), the proportion of children under five who receive nutritional interventions 𝐼(𝑡), and the proportion of children under five at risk of stunting who successfully become normal after receiving nutritional intervention 𝑁(𝑡). This system only has a stunting equilibrium point which locally asymptotically stable. Simulation of model was conducted with three scenarios to compare the effectiveness of nutritional intervention, without nutritional intervention, with local food-based nutritional intervention except snakehead fish and oringa leaves, and with local food-based nutritional intervention using snakehead fish and moringa leaves. The results of the model simulation show local food-based nutritional intervention very helpful in reducing the prevalence of stunting, especially in Central Kalimantan, and snakehead fish and moringa leaves has the potential to improve their efficacy, thereby accelerating the reduction in the stunting prevalence.