STATISTICAL INFERENCE-BASED DECISION MAKING FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISE

Abstract

More than 22 millions Indonesians running Small and Medium-sized enterprise (UKM stands for Usaha Kecil dan Menengah), absorbed more than 43.9 millions workers and contributed more than Rp 1.6 trillions to Indonesia’s Product Domestic Brutto (PDB)” (a citation from Sri Wahyuningsih, Lecturer, Universitas Wahid Hasyim, “PERANAN UKM DALAM PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA”, 2009). “The PKL” stands for Pedagang Kaki Lima (street vendor) selling foods, garment or other small sized commodities is the most popular example of the UKM and it has been chosen as the subject of this study. Survival and development of the UKM are indeed important to Indonesia’s economy. One important issue among UKM is in decision making process about whether to stop the business or continue with/without needs for capex. Scientific approach making use of riel data and statistical inference can well be utilized for this purpose and produce reliable basis for a decision making. When cost of goods and selling price have been established and ensure profitability, the remaining question is about the plausible sales projection. Trial running the subject shop of this experiment for 35 days, generates sufficient variable random data of sales, visitors and other relevant information. Further, by making use of statistical inference theory, a reliable estimate of sales potential and other related data will be available for decision making. When the scientific-approached concept is developed among UKM individuals and becomes a culture, it will rectify the path toward enjoying the benefit of the forth coming Society 5.