Analysis of Monetary Policy Intervention and Macroeconomic Variable Shocks Against Capital Inflow in 4 Emerging Countries ASEAN

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variable shocks which include economic growth, real effective exchange rate, and world oil prices as a proxy for world price stability and monetary policy intervention through controlling the money supply against capital inflow in four ASEAN emerging market countries.  This study uses a panel error correction model approach to fully utilize secondary data from 2000 to 2022 in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. The data is collected from the World Bank and Fred Economic Data. The results of this study indicate that monetary policy intervention through money supply control significantly influences capital inflows to ASEAN emerging market countries in the long run. Then, economic growth significantly affects capital inflows in ASEAN emerging market countries in the long run. Changes in oil prices and the real effective exchange rate do not significantly affect capital inflows in the long run. Economic growth significantly affects capital inflows in the short term. Meanwhile, monetary policy intervention, the real effective exchange rate, and the oil price did not significantly affect capital inflows in the short term in ASEAN emerging market countries. The results of this study show interesting findings because world oil prices, as the main indicator of changes in business and trade around the world, empirically show no significant effect on changes in capital inflows in emerging market countries. Meanwhile, monetary policy intervention effectively adjusts the balance of capital inflows in the long run. So it can be concluded that monetary policy in emerging market countries effectively controls long-term balance.