Analysis of the Fluctuations of ASEAN Currencies Against the US Dollar

Abstract

At the beginning of 2024, from January to April, there was a downward trend in the rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar. This downward trend also occurred in various countries in ASEAN. This trend is of course influenced by several factors, both internal and external. This research aims to analyze the internal and external factors that cause this tendency. The data in this research is secondary data and comes from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at CEIC. This research uses descriptive analytical-qualitative methods. The results of this research show that interest rates, inflation, and net exports in the short term do not have a significant effect on exchange rate movements. However, this depreciation factor trend is more influenced by global geopolitical problems and the size of a country's economy. Geopolitical issues and the size of the economy affect a country's balance of payments (BOP) and foreign exchange reserves, which in turn influence exchange rate movements. Researchers hope that this research can provide new information for the academic community and become material for consideration, suggestions, and input for government authorities who have internal decision-making authority regarding exchange rates.