The The Forest Cover Analysis Using Time Series Change Method in Aceh Region

Abstract

The forests of Aceh constitute a critical ecological buffer and serve as the last refuge for endangered species such as tigers, elephants, rhinoceroses, and orangutans. However, forest cover in Aceh has experienced significant decline over the past decade, with the province losing hundreds of thousands of hectares since 2015. This degradation is driven by illegal encroachment, forest conversion into plantations, illegal logging, mining, and infrastructure expansion, further aggravated by inadequate supervision, weak law enforcement, and conflicting interests in natural resource management. This study aims to analyze forest cover dynamics in Aceh from 2015 to 2021 using a time series change method. Key variables include forest cover area, reforestation data, deforestation data, reforestation ratio, and deforestation ratio. Data analysis was conducted using Powersim Studio Version 10.0. The results indicate that, without policy intervention, Aceh’s forests will become ecologically unstable within the next 100 years, posing high risks of both natural and humanitarian disasters. To address this, the study recommends policy interventions focusing on increasing the reforestation ratio under a moderate scenario. Additionally, community engagement in tree planting and stricter law enforcement against illegal logging are suggested as complementary strategies to ensure sustainable forest conservation.