The Impact of Economic Growth on Unemployment in Indonesia (2013–2024)
Keywords:
Economic Growth, Open Unemployment Rate, Panel Data, Fixed Effect, Regional DisparityAbstract
This study aims to examine the impact of economic growth on the open unemployment rate across 34 provinces in Indonesia during the period 2013–2024. The analysis employs a quantitative approach using panel data regression and utilizes secondary data obtained from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS). Model estimation is conducted using the Fixed Effects Model. The estimation results indicate that economic growth has a negative and statistically significant effect on the open unemployment rate, suggesting that higher economic growth is generally associated with a reduction in unemployment. A one percentage point increase in economic growth reduces the open unemployment rate by approximately 0.043 percentage points. However, the coefficient of determination (R²) of 2.14 percent suggests that unemployment is influenced by factors beyond economic growth alone. This study recommends that economic growth policies be designed to be more inclusive, targeting diverse sectors and regions to enhance their effectiveness in generating employment opportunities and expanding labor absorption.
References
Ahmad, U. S. (2024). Dampak pengangguran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Brilliant: Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance, 2(2), 241–256. https://journal.yibri.id/index.php/brijief/article/view/103
Anggoro, M. H., & Soesatyo, Y. (2015). Pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pertumbuhan angkatan kerja terhadap tingkat pengangguran di Kota Surabaya. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi (JUPE), 3(3), 1–15. https://ejournal.unesa.ac.id/index.php/jupe/article/download/12553/11584/16292
Ardhana, A. Y. A., Syazeedah, H. N. U., Fitriyaningrum, R. I., & Gunawan, A. (2025). Analisis ketidaksesuaian antara pendidikan dengan kebutuhan dunia kerja di Indonesia. Kompeten: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 3(4), 1020–1026. https://doi.org/10.57141/kompeten.v3i4.156
BPS. (2024). Indikator makro ekonomi Indonesia 2013–2024. Badan Pusat Statistik. https://www.bps.go.id
Entaresmen, R. A., Sumiyarti, S., Esther, A. M., & Hariyanti, D. (2025). Ekonomika makro pengantar.
Fauziah, N. (2024). Determinan yang mempengaruhi kemiskinan di Pulau Jawa (Perspektif teori pro-poor growth & human capital). Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies, 3(4), 1246–1256. https://doi.org/10.21776/jdess.2024.03.4.21
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Hartati, N. (2020). Pengaruh inflasi dan tingkat pengangguran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia periode 2010–2016. Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Pelita Bangsa, 5(1), 92–119. https://doi.org/10.37366/jespb.v5i01.86
Isnaini, F. Y. (2025). Analisis pengaruh tingkat pengangguran terhadap kemiskinan kabupaten/kota di Jawa Timur tahun 2023. MUSYTARI: Neraca Akuntansi Manajemen, Ekonomi, 18(10), 127–145. https://doi.org/10.8734/musytari.v1i2.365
Jeniko, F., & Trihadmini, N. (2025). Determinasi indikator ekonomi dan pembangunan terhadap pengangguran di ASEAN6: Analisis data panel. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan (JIEP), 8(1), 231–242. https://doi.org/10.20527/jiep.v8i1.2061
Mankiw, N. G. (2020). Macroeconomics (10th ed.). Worth Publishers.
Mu’minin, M. A., & Hidayat, W. R. (2017). Pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi dan jumlah penduduk terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di kabupaten/kota Provinsi Jawa Timur tahun 2011–2015. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 1(3), 374–384. https://ejournal.umm.ac.id/index.php/jie/article/download/6164/5619/0
Nurrosidah, K., Tania, M., & Sahara, J. R. (2025). Analisis korelasi antara laju inflasi dan tingkat pengangguran akibat PHK massal. Jurnal Ekonomi, 3(5), 1–10. https://jeconomics.my.id/index.php/home/article/view/515
Rahmadina Putri, R., Utami, P., & Talia, N. (2023). Pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di Kota Prabumulih. Assyarikah: Journal of Islamic Economic Business, 4(1), 29–40. https://assyarikahjournal.id
Sadono Sukirno. (2014). Pengantar teori makro ekonomi. PT Raja Grafindo Persada.
Setyaputri, N. A., Nurfiana, W., Insani, A. N., Nihayah, D. M., & Nuryana, I. (2025). Pengaruh PDRB, upah minimum, dan jumlah penduduk terhadap pengangguran kabupaten/kota Provinsi Jawa Tengah tahun 2019–2023. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi (JUPE), 13(2), 127–137. https://doi.org/10.26740/jupe.v13n2.p127-137
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic development (12th ed.). Pearson.
Winata, W. P. A., & Choiri, M. (2025). Pengaruh indeks pembangunan manusia dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Jurnal Cendekia Akuntansi, 6(1), 79–93. https://doi.org/10.32503/akuntansi.v6i1.7043
Zulkarnain, T., Zulfikar, Z., Putri, Y. T., & Rachman, I. C. (2025). Efektivitas anggaran sektor publik terhadap peningkatan kualitas hidup di Indonesia. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Politeknik Negeri Lhokseumawe, 8(1), 123–130. https://e-jurnal.pnl.ac.id/semnaspnl/article/view/6795
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Conference Proceedings Volume
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Widya Ningrum Rachmawati, Diah Lufti Wijayanti
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
